BlackBox NFL Week 2 Report

Each week I will be tracking the following for an "expected" ATS edge based on logic and small samples of past history.

Some information could be used to help handicap a team in general...perhaps some of these categories should just be wagered blindly for grinding out a season long advantage.
Use at your own risk and make your own decisions. Past history does not guarantee future sucess.------------------------------------
BlackBox Week 2 NFL Report



Each week bet on the largest point differential loser from the week before.This has a long time record of ATS advantage. New Orleans -3.5 is the pick this week

]Net T/O ratio [/b](Contrarian method.Plus teams should be bet against and vice versa with the logic of let downs or bounce backs from easy wins or poor performance in the prior week.) Last years record through week 14 (41-20)

Pitt +4 (bet against)
Clev -3(bet for)
Cin +4(bet against)
Balt -4 (bet for)

TL 20 Dogs (Dogs with less than a 20% bet percentage at Sporting Insights tracking of online wagering. Tuesday afternoon is used as the day to measure this. Why? Because it worked! Last years record was 37-17 through week 14 and it was good the year before as well for picking Dog ATS winners.


Week 2 Dogs that will bark
Buffalo +10
Clev+6.5
Tenn+7
Tampa +3
Miami +3.5
KC +12
SD +3.5

Large Point Spread Differential team matchups


Looking for motivational angles...teams with lets downs from big wins playing teams that may bounceback from large losses as measured by the point spread differential from the week before. Looking for at least 20 point differentials to qualify.
[Clev +6.5 (26pts diff)
Buffalo +10 (20 pts diff)


Teams on the road 2 or more weeks in a row as possible fades.
Atlanta
New Orleans
KC

]Teams traveling across more than 2 times zones on the road to fade[/b]. (Long term ATS advantage according to Vegas Insider)

San Diego
San Fran



Again...use at your own risk. I am just trying to give out information to help others make their own decisions. We have had some good luck with this in the past...but its all experimental.
Lets kick some bookie tail.