NCAA Football Free Picks

This week there are two teams locked into this "play against" set: Northwestern and Washington.


Play against Northwestern and Washington.

Read the article for the reasons why.

http://www.statfox.com/statfoxnews/news~articleid~3044.htm

BlackBox Week 3 NFL Report

Here we go, week 3. Use the information at your own risk. I hope it helps people out. Some info can be used to handicap, some catagories could be played as wagers all year for an expected ATS advantage.
Its all an experiment ...so use it as you see fit.

I use Tuesday lines at Wagerline to determine ATS records.

Less than 20% Bet percentage Dogs. (4-3 ATS,Home Dogs 3-1 ATS)

Houston +6 Home
Jax +3
Atlanta +4 Home
Bears -3 Home

Turn over Ratio Contrarian Plays (2-1 ATS)

Miami +3 Bet on
Dallas +3 Bet against

Largest loss from the previous week. Bet on (0-1 ATS)
SD -4

On the road 2 or more weeks in a row. Bet against (1-2 ATS)SD DALLAS BUFFINDYMINNSFCINCY
Travel across 2 or more time zones. Bet against (1-1 ATS)
SD
CLEV
SF
CINCY

Large Point Differential Picks. Bet On (1-1 ATS)
SD -4
BUFF +17
GIANTS +4
NEW ORLEANS -4.5

Over Under Picks (3-2 ATS)
None

Sunday 9/23 NFL Free Pick

Play Against road teams off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a road loss. This short and sweet system is 17-4 80.9 percent the last three years. This week the team to play on is Oakland.

http://www.statfox.com/statfoxnews/news~articleid~3024.htm

College Football Dogs Week 3

College Dogs This is the first week for BWELL's College system at the Fox Den. Overall Record is currently 64-27-3, 70.3%. I can vouch for that...I was following him last year toward the tail end of the year.. MJ

Indiana +3
Buffalo +4
Akron +3.5
Air Force +9.5
Kentucky +6.5
UConn +7.5
Ohio U +3.5
Ark St +19.5

Here is his explanation of how he does it....he has quite a following at the Fox Den forum. "This formula is called the South Carolina Factor, named for South Carolina's SU upset of Tennessee in Gainesville two years ago. South Carolina's point total was almost 3 points higher than UT"s, but they were more than a 2 TD dog. They won outright, and the rest as they say, is history. Add the visitors points for and the homers points allowed. add in the two teams turnover differential gap (for example if Notre Dame is the visitor and they have a -4, and Navy is the home team with a +5, you subtract 4.5 from Notre Dame's total and add 4.5 to Navy's) Add 3 for a home team, subtract 3 for a visitor (if applicable, bowl games do not count this unless the game is played in a team's backyard). Divide the entire number by 2, and compare for both teams. If the underdog has a higher point total than the favorite, you have a play. You have to have a team with a negative TO diff playing a team with a pos TO diff, two negs and two plusses will not work. An example using this week's games (NOT A PLAY JUST AN EXAMPLE!!!!!)Ohio St Vs WashingtonOhio ST PF=29Was Pts Ag=11Ohio ST TO Diff=-5(Wash TO Diff is plus 3, making it a gap of 8. Divide 8 by 2, and you get a total of 4, which you will subtract from Ohio St for having the Negative end and add to Wash for having the positive end) Subtract 3 points for being the visitorTotal of 29+11-4-3= 32 Divide the total of all sums by 2 giving you a grand total of=16Ohio St's Formula number is 16Wash PF= 33OSU's PA=4 Wash To Diff +3 (as stated earlier with this info you add 4 to wash total)Add 3 Points for being the home teamTotal of 33+4+4+3= 44Divide 44 by 2 and you get a grand total of=22OSU- 16Was-22 Spread is Wash +4, so therefore the play is Washinton Plus 4.PS I suck at Math, but the formula is fairly easy to do. It just sucks to explain."http://forums.statfox.com/forum/showthread...0&pagenumber=17

BlackBox NFL Week 2 Report

Each week I will be tracking the following for an "expected" ATS edge based on logic and small samples of past history.

Some information could be used to help handicap a team in general...perhaps some of these categories should just be wagered blindly for grinding out a season long advantage.
Use at your own risk and make your own decisions. Past history does not guarantee future sucess.------------------------------------
BlackBox Week 2 NFL Report



Each week bet on the largest point differential loser from the week before.This has a long time record of ATS advantage. New Orleans -3.5 is the pick this week

]Net T/O ratio [/b](Contrarian method.Plus teams should be bet against and vice versa with the logic of let downs or bounce backs from easy wins or poor performance in the prior week.) Last years record through week 14 (41-20)

Pitt +4 (bet against)
Clev -3(bet for)
Cin +4(bet against)
Balt -4 (bet for)

TL 20 Dogs (Dogs with less than a 20% bet percentage at Sporting Insights tracking of online wagering. Tuesday afternoon is used as the day to measure this. Why? Because it worked! Last years record was 37-17 through week 14 and it was good the year before as well for picking Dog ATS winners.


Week 2 Dogs that will bark
Buffalo +10
Clev+6.5
Tenn+7
Tampa +3
Miami +3.5
KC +12
SD +3.5

Large Point Spread Differential team matchups


Looking for motivational angles...teams with lets downs from big wins playing teams that may bounceback from large losses as measured by the point spread differential from the week before. Looking for at least 20 point differentials to qualify.
[Clev +6.5 (26pts diff)
Buffalo +10 (20 pts diff)


Teams on the road 2 or more weeks in a row as possible fades.
Atlanta
New Orleans
KC

]Teams traveling across more than 2 times zones on the road to fade[/b]. (Long term ATS advantage according to Vegas Insider)

San Diego
San Fran



Again...use at your own risk. I am just trying to give out information to help others make their own decisions. We have had some good luck with this in the past...but its all experimental.
Lets kick some bookie tail.

Free Pick...Nebraska Sat 9/08

Take Nebraska -8

Nice system with a history and good explanation.

http://www.statfox.com/statfoxnews/news~articleid~2993.htm