Blackbox NFL Report Week 5
Use the information at your own risk. I hope it helps people out. Some info can be used to handicap, some catagories could be played as wagers all year for an expected ATS advantage.
Its all an experiment ...so use it as you see fit.
There is a point differential, angle, or expected emotional reason quantified by scores and performance against the spread as the reason for all these picks. Its all based on something that in my opinion could be relevant to the outcoume of predicting ATS over time. We shall see.
I use Tuesday lines at Wagerline to determine ATS records.
Less than 20% Bet percentage Dogs. Bet On (8-8-1 ATS, Home Dogs 5-5-1 ATS)
Jets +3.5
Chicago +3
Buffalo +10 Home
Turn over Ratio Contrarian Plays (2-4-1 ATS)
New Orleans Bet on
Tenn Bet against
Largest loss from the previous week. Bet on (1-2ATS)
St. Louis +3.5
On the road 2 or more weeks in a row. Bet against (5-3-3 ATS)
Seattle +5.5
Baltimore -3.5
Chicago +3
Tampa Bay +10
Travel across 2 or more time zones. Bet against (4-5-1 ATS)
Seattle +5.5
Baltimore -3.5
Large Point Differential Picks. Bet On (1-2 ATS)
Pittsburgh +5.5
Over Under Picks (5-2 ATS)
Carolina /NO Over 44.5
Miami / Houston Over 43.5
Baltimore/San Fran Over 35.5
Cleveland/New England Under 48.5
Jacksonville/ KC Under 36
San Diego/Denver Over 42
ATS Trends for 2007
home favs of 2pts or less....................7-3-1 ats
home favs of 3-6pts...........................1-5 ats
home favs of 15pts or more..................3-0 ats
road favs of 4pts or less......................7-1-4 ats
all favs of 1pt....................................4-0-1 ats
all favs of 6pts..................................0-4 ats
all favs of 8pts..................................0-4 ats
Which teams are destroying the competition so far this year? Usually coincides with good ATS records and is a great predictor for playoff teams and Super Bowl Winners. Of course there is plenty of time for movement here yet....its early.
Best teams with Margin of Victory
1 New England +25.0
2 Dallas +19.8
3 Pittsburgh+16.0
4 Green Bay+10.5
5 Tampa Bay +9.3
6 Indianapolis +8.7
7 Seattle +8.5
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Based on the report I like Pittsburgh -5.5 this week.
Seattle is travelling two weeks in a row, and across two time zones this week.
Also Seattle is coming off a large point spread win and Pittsburgh lost the point spread battle badly in Arizona.
Looking for Pittsburgh to bounce back nicely at home this week against a Seahawk squad that has some factors dragging against them.
Cleveland /New England Under 48.5
Both are coming off strong point spread wins...New England is on a 4 week streak of this and coming off a Monday night game. Good spot to go contrarian and take the Under here.
Jax/KC Under 36
Jacksonville/Kc Both coming nice point spread differentials. Jax had a bye. KC is still a tough place to play. Not much offense this week. A lot of factors point to a flat game and the under.
SD/Denver Over 42
Division game....SD is in a real spot to prove something here. That means points. Denvers defense can't stop anythng...that means more points.
Just my opinions....good luck!
